Differential mortality of infectious disease in Italian polities: COVID-19, past plague epidemics, and currently endemic respiratory disease.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has harshly impacted Italy since its arrival in February 2020. In particular, provinces in Italy's Central and Northern macroregions have dealt with disproportionately greater case prevalence and mortality rates than those in the South. In this paper, we compare the morbidity and mortality dynamics of 16th and 17th century Plague outbreaks with those of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic across Italian regions. We also include data on infectious respiratory diseases which are presently endemic to Italy in order to analyze the regional differences between epidemic and endemic disease. A Growth Curve Analysis allowed for the estimation of time-related intercepts and slopes across the 16th and 17th centuries. Those statistical parameters were later incorporated as criterion variables in multiple General Linear Models. These statistical examinations determined that the Northern macroregion had a higher intercept than the Southern macroregion. This indicated that provinces located in Northern Italy had historically experienced higher plague mortalities than Southern polities. The analyses also revealed that this geographical differential in morbidity and mortality persists to this day, as the Northern macroregion has experienced a substantially higher COVID-19 mortality than the Southern macroregion. These results are consistent with previously published analyses. The only other stable and significant predictor of epidemic disease mortality was foreign urban potential, a measure of the degree of interconnectedness between 16th and 17th century Italian cities. Foreign urban potential was negatively associated with plague slope and positively associated with plague intercept, COVID-19 mortality, GDP per capita, and immigration per capita. Its substantial contribution in predicting both past and present outcomes provides a temporal continuity not seen in any other measure tested here. Overall, this study provides compelling evidence that temporally stable geographical factors, impacting both historical and current foreign pathogen spread above and beyond other hypothesized predictors, underlie the disproportionate impact COVID-19 has had throughout Central and Northern Italian provinces.

Art in support of life: Caravaggio and the plague.

In the struggle with COVID-19, art offered a way to face the solitude of the lockdown. The focus of this paper is primarily on Caravaggio's painting The Seven Works of Mercy, with references to other paintings to amplify some aspects of the artist's approach to life and his uniqueness in the artistic landscape of his time. Darkness was part of Caravaggio's research for spiritual truth and by entering the stories of his life and exploring the tales told through imaginative expression in his paintings, it is possible to understand his process of exploration of ancestral darkness. The author uses her imagination to reflect on how art can help to contact the profound fears buried in the unconscious which are now being awakened by the pandemic. The contemplation of this painting facilitated the emergence of emotions related to the darkness of our time, with the discovery that empathy and mercy offer a way to come to terms with the pandemic. This approach demands a different understanding of reality with Caravaggio's dark creative world becoming a companion that permits the exploration of what is not yet thinkable in daily life. Images accompany the author's research that relies on her imagination and amplifications.

Dans la bataille avec la COVID-19, l'art a offert une manière de faire face à la solitude du confinement. L'accent de cet article vient principalement du tableau du Caravage Les sept œuvres de miséricorde, avec des références à d'autres tableaux pour amplifier certains aspects de l'approche de l'artiste et sa singularité dans le paysage artistique de son époque. Pour le Caravage, la noirceur fait partie de la recherche de vérité spirituelle. En entrant dans les histoires de sa vie et en explorant les récits racontés au travers de l'expression imaginative dans ses tableaux, il est possible de comprendre son processus d'exploration de la noirceur ancestrale. L'auteur utilise sa propre imagination pour réfléchir à comment l'art peut aider à contacter les peurs enterrées dans l'inconscient et qui sont maintenant éveillées par la pandémie. La contemplation de ce tableau a facilité l'émergence d'émotions liées à la noirceur de notre époque, avec la découverte que l'empathie et la compassion offrent une voie pour se confronter à la pandémie et l'accepter. Cette approche requiert une compréhension différente de la réalité et le monde noir et créatif du Caravage devient un compagnon qui permet l'exploration de ce qui n'est pas encore pensable dans la vie quotidienne. Des images accompagnent la recherche de l'auteur qui se fie à son imagination et ses amplifications.

En la lucha con el COVID-19, el arte ofreció una vía para enfrentar la soledad del confinamiento. El foco del presente trabajo es principalmente la pintura Siete obras de Misericordia, de Caravaggio, con referencias a otras pinturas para amplificar algunos aspectos del acercamiento del artista a la vida, y su singularidad en la escena artística de su tiempo. La oscuridad fue parte de la búsqueda de Caravaggio por la verdad espiritual, y al entrar en las historias de su vida y explorar los cuentos narrados a través de su expresión imaginativa en sus pinturas, es posible comprender su proceso de exploración de la oscuridad ancestral. La autora utiliza su imaginación para reflexionar sobre cómo el arte puede ayudar a contactar miedos profundos enterrados en el inconsciente, los cuales ahora están siendo despertados por la pandemia. La contemplación de esta pintura facilitó la emergencia de emociones relacionadas con la oscuridad de nuestro tiempo, con el descubrimiento de que la empatía y la compasión ofrecen una vía para poder llegar a términos con la pandemia. Este abordaje demanda una comprensión diferente de la realidad con el mundo creativo de Caravaggio volviéndose un aliado que posibilita la exploración de lo que aún no puede ser pensado en nuestra vida cotidiana. Imágenes acompañan la investigación de la autora, que se basa en su imaginación y en amplificaciones.

[From the Antonine Plague to the Cyprian Plague: Scopes and consequences of global plagues in the Roman Empire in the 3rd century AD.] / De la Peste Antonina a la Peste de Cipriano: Alcances y consecuencias de las pestes globales en el Imperio Romano en el siglo III d.C.

Between the 2nd and 3rd centuries the Roman Empire suffered two great plagues, the Antonine Plague, of which there is a bibliography, and the lesser known Plague of Cyprian. As an overview, both pandemics resemble the crisis that in 2020 the Coronavirus is generating in many aspects of human life. This article focuses on the impact that the Cyprian plague had in the context of the crisis of the third century, its mortality is estimated between 10-20% of the population in the affected places, finally its effects generated several of the necessary conditions for the transition from the ancient to the medieval world. It is about understanding how the cycle of plagues that went from the 2nd century to the 3rd century changed the appearance of the Roman world and what lessons history gives us 1700 years later.

The Manchurian Plague and COVID-19: China, the United States, and the "Sick Man," Then and Now.

In this article, I explore the historical resonances between China's 1911 pneumonic plague and our current situation with COVID-19. At the turn of the 20th century, China was labeled "the Sick Man of the Far East": a once-powerful country that had become burdened by opium addiction, infectious disease, and an ineffective government. In 1911, this weakened China faced an outbreak of pneumonic plague in Manchuria that killed more than 60 000 people. After the 1911 plague, a revolutionized China radically restructured its approach to public health to eliminate the stigma of being "the Sick Man." Ironically, given the US mishandling of the COVID pandemic, observers in today's China are now calling the United States "the Sick Man of the West": a country burdened by opioid addiction, infectious disease, and an ineffective government. The historical significance of the phrase "Sick Man"-and its potential to now be associated with the United States-highlights the continued links between epidemic control and international status in a changing world. This historical comparison also reveals that plagues bring not only tragedy but also the opportunity for change.

Pandemics: past, present, future: That is like choosing between cholera and plague.

The major epidemic and pandemic diseases that have bothered humans since the Neolithic Age and Bronze Age are surveyed. Many of these pandemics are zoonotic infections, and the mathematical modeling of such infections is illustrated. Plague, cholera, syphilis, influenza, SARS, MERS, COVID-19, and new potential epidemic and pandemic infections and their consequences are described and the background for the spread of acute and chronic infections and the transition to endemic infections is discussed. The way we can prevent and fight pandemics is illustrated from the old and new well-known pandemics. Surprisingly, the political reactions through different periods have not changed much during the centuries.

Are we Athens or Florence? COVID-19 in historical context.

We have been here before. In 430 BCE, a plague struck Athens, killing as much as 25% of the population. In 1347 CE, the bubonic plague afflicted western Europe for 4 years, killing as much as 50% of the population. The plague of Athens led to a collapse of their religion, cultural norms and democracy. In contrast, the bubonic plague led eventually to the Renaissance, a growth of art, science and humanism. As we contend with the COVID-19 global pandemic, will we become Athens or Florence?

Protective face masks through centuries, from XVII century plague doctors to current health care professionals managing the COVID-19 pandemic.

The adoption of items similar to face masks by human beings dates back to the remote past. With specific regard to the use of face protections for medical purposes, from the beginning of the XVII century onwards in Europe physicians in charge of curing patients with plague wore a complicated, and subsequently typical, costume. The face mask included eye sockets of glass and leather headdresses with long, pointed beaks. These beaks were filled with scented spices, aromatic substances and perfumes to filter out the plague and to mask "bad air", which was considered to be the vehicle of the disease. In the XVIII and XIX centuries a number of advances regarding personal protection devices in health care were achieved. In the course of the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu), health care professionals began to use face masks in a routine way to protect themselves and their patients. From the sixties (XX century) onwards, the explosion of health care technology has led to a continuous refinement in the study of individual protection devices, also because, even in the presence of an increasing number of powerful antimicrobial agents, infectious diseases have remained dominant during these last decades. It is not by chance, therefore, that one of the consequences of the 2020 ongoing COVID-19 pandemic should be the fact that face masks have become essential again both inside and outside health care environments. Even if more than a century has passed from Fluegge's historical definition of bacteria-laden droplets, the role of certain medical-preventive achievements of the past, including the paradigmatic model of protective face masks, continues to remain pivotal in this third millennium.

Control measures of a 400-year-old plague epidemic: an example of past efficiency at controlling disease and similarities with current epidemics.

The plague caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, provides one of the best historical examples of pandemic infection. It can therefore be considered the first "globalized" disease, thanks also to the crowds that favoured the rebalancing of infectious agents between Europe and the Middle East. In this paper we analyse all the official documents of the time, highlighting the most effective prevention measures implemented in the city of Ferrara during the Italian plague. Historical mortality data for the 1630 Italian plague in northern Italy are first analysed. In contrast to the high rates recorded throughout the area from Milan to Florence, the mortality rate in Ferrara remained normal over the period. From the city's documents it emerged that the authorities, from the 16th century onwards, had already understood that the spread of the contagion could also occur through domestic animals, although rats are never mentioned. The strength of Ferrara's response to the "plague emergency" stems from an efficient and emergency-ready health control system, financed and supported by the "permanent surveillance team of the city and the Pontifical Legation of Ferrara - Azienda Sanitaria Pubblica" even in times of great economic difficulty for the State. Among the various measures that the city of Ferrara adopted to deal with the plague the following should be mentioned: guards at the city gates, lazarettos, safety of doctors, self-isolation and treatment of every suspicious case as if it were a real case of plague, measures to support the poorer classes of the population, veterinary and hygiene standards for the city and for housing, management of Catholic religious functions and the precepts of the Legation of Ferrara, which was under papal control, closure of churches to avoid mass gatherings, and limitations of all kinds of social and economic relations within and outside the population. The broad regimen, laid down in the 16th century, contains extremely modern health rules which are very much in line with those recommended by the WHO and the health authorities of each individual state in the current COVID-19 pandemic, even starting with hand-washing. The fight against epidemics of the past, especially the history of the plague in the 17th century, anticipates very important and valid concepts, and represents a wake-up call for the recent epidemics of emerging pathogens.

Quarantine as a tool of epidemic fight.

Until the 19th century, the factor causing epidemics was not known, and the escape from a place where it occurred as well as isolation of patients was considered to be the only effective way to avoid illness and death. Quarantine in a sense similar to modern times was used in 1377 in Ragusa, today's Dubrovnik, during the plague epidemic. It was the first administratively imposed procedure in the world's history. It was later used in Venice and other rich port cities in the Mediterranean. On the territory of today's Poland, quarantine measures were used by the so-called Mayor of the Air - LukaszDrewno in 1623 during the plague epidemic in Warsaw. The quarantine left its mark on all areas of human activity. It affected all humanity in a way that is underestimated today. Throughout history, it has been described and presented visually. It is omnipresent in the world literature, art and philosophy. However, the isolation and closure of cities, limiting trade, had an impact on the economic balance, and the dilemma between the choice of inhabitants' health and the quality of existence, i.e. their wealth, has been the subject of discussions since the Middle Ages. Since the end of the 19th century, quarantine has lost its practical meaning. The discovery of bacteria and a huge development of medical and social sciences allowed limiting its range. In the 20th century isolation and quarantine no longer had a global range, because the ability to identify factors causing the epidemic, knowledge about the incubation period, carrier, infectiousness, enabled the rational determination of its duration and territorial range. The modern SARS COV 2 pandemic has resulted in a global quarantine on a scale unprecedented for at least three hundred years. The aim of this paper is to present the history of quarantine from its beginning to the present day, including its usefulness as an epidemiological tool.

Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.

Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster ("accelerated"). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.

History of the Plague: An Ancient Pandemic for the Age of COVID-19.

During the fourteenth century, the bubonic plague or Black Death killed more than one third of Europe or 25 million people. Those afflicted died quickly and horribly from an unseen menace, spiking high fevers with suppurative buboes (swellings). Its causative agent is Yersinia pestis, creating recurrent plague cycles from the Bronze Age into modern-day California and Mongolia. Plague remains endemic in Madagascar, Congo, and Peru. This history of medicine review highlights plague events across the centuries. Transmission is by fleas carried on rats, although new theories include via human body lice and infected grain. We discuss symptomatology and treatment options. Pneumonic plague can be weaponized for bioterrorism, highlighting the importance of understanding its clinical syndromes. Carriers of recessive familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) mutations have natural immunity against Y. pestis. During the Black Death, Jews were blamed for the bubonic plague, perhaps because Jews carried FMF mutations and died at lower plague rates than Christians. Blaming minorities for epidemics echoes across history into our current coronavirus pandemic and provides insightful lessons for managing and improving its outcomes.

Learning from the past in the COVID-19 era: rediscovery of quarantine, previous pandemics, origin of hospitals and national healthcare systems, and ethics in medicine.

After the dramatic coronavirus outbreak at the end of 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, on 11 March 2020, a pandemic was declared by the WHO. Most countries worldwide imposed a quarantine or lockdown to their citizens, in an attempt to prevent uncontrolled infection from spreading. Historically, quarantine is the 40-day period of forced isolation to prevent the spread of an infectious disease. In this educational paper, a historical overview from the sacred temples of ancient Greece-the cradle of medicine-to modern hospitals, along with the conceive of healthcare systems, is provided. A few foods for thought as to the conflict between ethics in medicine and shortage of personnel and financial resources in the coronavirus disease 2019 era are offered as well.

Fatal Infectious Epidemics in Iran in the Last Two Centuries; What Lessons Can We Learn from Preceding Outbreaks? A Brief Historical Review.

In the past two centuries, several fatal infectious outbreaks have arisen in Iran. Presented here is a brief historical account of four fatal epidemics including cholera, plague, Spanish influenza of 1918 and smallpox between1796 and 1979. The lessons from these outbreaks could be helpful for better combatting other deadly epidemics including the present-day disastrous COVID-19 pandemic.